No
worthless blabber from me this year, there’s way too much ground to cover and
not enough time to cover it, so I’m going to just jump head-first right into my
official Academy Award predictions. I will not guarantee that you’ll win your
office pool with these, but I can guarantee that I’ve spent more time
researching these predictions than just about anyone who doesn’t do this
professionally and who's not actually a certified lunatic.
(Cracks
knuckles)
BEST PICTURE: 12 Years a Slave
% Sure: 51.5
Could Win: Gravity
Should Win: 12 Years a Slave
Should Have Been There: Before Midnight
Comments: Welp, for the first time
since I’ve been doing this there appears to be an actual race for the Best
Picture award. The Producer’s Guild, usually the best indicator of what will end
up winning Best Picture, somehow managed a tie between Gravity and 12 Years a Slave
this year. However, the Director’s Guild gave their biggest prize to Alfonso
Cuaron for his directorial achievement with Gravity.
The last time the Director’s Guild gave their top prize to a movie that DIDN’T go
on to win Best Picture was in 2005, with the Crash over Brokeback Mountain
debacle. And it’s only happened three other times since 1989. And yet...
12 Years a Slave FEELS way more like a
Best Picture winner, doesn’t it? I want to quickly compare a few movies:
12 Years a Slave
Crash
Driving Miss Daisy
Chariots of Fire
In the Heat of the Night
What
do all these films have in common? Well, firstly, none of them won the Director’s
Guild Award for their year, but then went on to win Best Picture at the Oscars.
Secondly, they all involve race/culture relations (with all except Chariots of Fire being about black/white
relations in America).
So
I find it interesting that in many cases, the Academy voters have felt some
sense of duty to be on the “right” side of history when it comes to casting a
vote for their top award. Yeah, Gravity is
a groundbreaking and enjoyable film, and they can still award it with a Best
Director Oscar. But when it comes to the top prize, the award everyone will
remember, the award that defines them as an awards body?
It
HAS to be the movie depicting the horrors of slavery in America, right? The one
perceived as more important?
So
even though I’ve debated this in my head a million times, and even switched my
vote while writing this column 800 times, it eventually came down to “which
film would I feel more stupid for being wrong about?” And there’s where I found
my answer. 12 Years a Slave is my
official prediction.
BEST DIRECTOR: Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
% Sure: 85
Could Win: Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
Should Win: Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
Should Have Been There: Derek Cianfrance,
The Place Beyond the Pines
Comments: Won’t bore you all again with
a long-winded, metric-based discussion of why this award has to go to Cuaron,
but I don’t see any way that he loses this.
BEST ACTOR: Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
% Sure: 75
Could Win: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
Should Win: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
Should Have Been There: Oscar Isaac, Inside Llewyn Davis
Comments: I have a sneaking suspicion
about Leo’s chances here, but only two actors have ever won an Oscar without
getting a Screen Actor’s Guild nomination, of which Leo didn’t. Christoph Waltz
managed to pull it off last year for only the second time ever, but the odds
are clearly against it. Having said that, this category has the biggest
possibility for a surprise upset, as I could legitimately see any of the four
other nominees stealing it from McConaughey.
BEST ACTRESS: Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
% Sure: 98.5
Could Win: Amy Adams, American Hustle
Should Win: Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Should Have Been There: Greta Gerwig, Frances Ha
Comments: Recent Woody Allen
controversies withstanding, Dame Blanchett has this award in the bag.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
% Sure: 99.5
Could Win: Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
Should Win: Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
Should Have Been There: Bradley Cooper,
The Place Beyond the Pines
Comments: The most sure-fire bet of all
the acting awards.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Lupita Nyongo,
12 Years a Slave
% Sure: 60
Could Win: Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
Should Win: Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle (though Lupita would be
a very worthy winner)
Should Have Been There: Margot Robbie, The Wolf of Wall Street
Comments: Bit of a two-way race here
between Nyongo and last year’s Best Actress winner, miss J-Law. Which is
exactly the reason I don’t believe she will win this year.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: American Hustle
% Sure: 55
Could Win: Her
Should Win: Blue Jasmine
Should Have Been There: Frances Ha
Comments: The debate with this
prediction is that it I think Her could very well win, but then that means American Hustle racked up 10 nominations and went home empty-handed (unless, as
I note above, J-Law pulls off her second straight Oscar win). And wonky things
always seem to happen in the screenplay categories.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: 12 Years a Slave
% Sure: 75
Could Win: Philomena
Should Win: Before Midnight
Should Have Been There: Before Midnight got the nomination, and
that’s the most important thing.
Comments: A Best Picture winner rarely
loses this award (it happened in 2012 with The
Artist, but, that was a silent film).
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: Frozen
% Sure: 80
Could Win: The Wind Rises
Should Win: Whoops...didn’t see any of
these.
Should Have Been There: I literally
didn’t see a single animated film this year. Totally unacceptable.
Comments: The Academy usually likes to reward
more artistic films like The Wind Rises
with a nomination, but that seems to be as far as they’ll go. It finally
appears to be Disney’s year.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: 20 Feet From Stardom
% Sure: 55
Could Win: The Act of Killing
Comments: The Act of Killing is great and you should watch it on Netflix
streaming as soon as you get a chance. Does not seem to be an “Academy” movie
to me. Which is why a lot of people are predicting The Square, a cultural documentary about Egyptian revolutionaries.
It’s really too bad that Sarah Polley’s Stories
We Tell couldn’t manage a nomination, because I think it would have gone on
to win. Okay, it’s clear that I’m
just stalling and I have no handle on this category whatsoever. Next.
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: The Great Beauty
% Sure: 50
Could Win: The Broken Circle Breakdown
Comments: Usually there’s a clear
winner in this category, but it appears to be a race this year.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: Gravity
% Sure: 95
Could Win: Prisoners
Should Win: Gravity
Should Have Been There: To the Wonder, obviously. But I also
wish 12 Years a Slave could have made
it in (let’s be honest and admit that Nebraska
would not have been here if it weren’t in black and white).
Comments: Emmanuel Lubezki, director of photography on such films as The Tree of Life, Children of Men, and
this year’s To The Wonder, looks to
win his first award for Gravity after
having been previously nominated five times without a win. Rarely do Best
Picture nominees lose to non-Best Picture nominees in this category, and the
only other Best Picture nom here is Nebraska.
Gravity has this one in the bag.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN: The Great Gatsby
% Sure: 68
Could Win: 12 Years a Slave
Should Win: Her, obviously
Should Have Been There: The Wolf of Wall Street
Comments: Gatsby appears to satisfy the tech award category mantra of “Best =
Most” and the always-gaudy Baz Lurhmann seems to have done just that this year
with a quantity over quality approach to his adaptation of the Fitzgerald
novel. Four Best Picture hopefuls are waiting in the wings with Gravity, 12 Years a Slave, American Hustle and
Her all exhibiting worthy work, but
there doesn’t seem to be a clear frontrunner among them to topple Gatsby.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN: The Great Gatsby
% Sure: 70
Could Win: American Hustle
Should Win: 12 Years a Slave
Should Have Been There: The Wolf of Wall Street and Her
Comments: See above. Costume and
Production Design seem to go hand-in-hand fairly often, though I’m wondering if
some voters will cast their vote for the glitzy costume-work in Hustle as a consolation prize for
missing out on other top awards.
BEST HAIRSTYLING AND MAKEUP: Dallas Buyers Club
% Sure: 95
Could Win: Actually Bad Grandpa might have a chance.
Should Win: Dallas Buyers Club
Should Have Been There: 12 Years a Slave (I’m sorry, I’m trying
to keep my personal biases out of this, but, sorry.
Comments: Best Picture nom against
non-Best Picture noms. Easy money. Moving along...
BEST FILM EDITING: Gravity
% Sure: 68.5
Could Win: Captain Phillips
Should Win: I’ll let Gravity have this one even though I
loved the editing in 12 Years a Slave.
Should Have Been There: Both the
crisply-moving Frances Ha and the
wonderfully drawn-out The Wolf of Wall
Street exhibit how important editing is to telling the type of story you
want to tell. They each worked wonderfully for opposite reasons, and both
deserved to be in this field over the severely undercooked American Hustle, which might be the single worst nomination in any
category this year.
Comments: Look out for Captain Phillips, as the last Paul
Greengrass film to be nominated here won the award (The Bourne Ultimatum).
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS: Gravity
% Sure: 10,320
Could Win: A short film that I just
made on my iPhone about me doing the dishes, because it literally has as much
of a chance as winning as anything else not named Gravity.
Should Win: Gravity
BEST SOUND MIXING: Gravity
% Sure: 97.5
Could Win: Captain Phillips
Should Win: Gravity
Should Have Been There: The Conjuring
Comments: Best Picture hopeful that’s
also a big blockbuster = lots of Oscar wins in technical categories. This is a
tried and true Oscar rule.
BEST SOUND EDITING: Gravity
% Sure:
Could Win: Lone Survivor
Should Win: Gravity
Should Have Been There: who cares.
Comments: Last year, Zero Dark Thirty and Skyfall tied to squeeze this one out over the otherwise heavily-awarded Life of Pi, but it seems like Gravity is such a tech-monolith this
year that I don’t anticipate that will happen with, say, Lone Survivor (also, Zero
Dark Thirty had a lot of other nominations and was a Best Picture
contender, so that means something there, I think).
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE: Gravity
% Sure: 60
Could Win: Her
Should Win: Gravity
Should Have Been There: Not a great
year for original scores, but I liked both Her
and Gravity pretty well.
Comments: Don’t have a great feel for
this category. It’s mainly a case of “no other good nominees” that will
probably propel
Gravity toward one of
it’s many wins of the night.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG: “Let it Go” from Frozen
% Sure: 95
Comments: Whatever. Always my least
favorite category of the night. The tween and gay faction of viewers will
enjoy this win.
BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM: Get a Horse!
% Sure: 85
Comments: Disney will kick off their
two-win night with an award for this fun little short film (barring an Original
Score win for Saving Mr. Banks).
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM: The Voorman Problem
% Sure: Whatever.
Comments: The only English language
short film. Next.
BEST DOCUMENTARY, SHORT SUBJECTS: The
one about the 109 year old Holocaust survivor seems about right. No other
commentary necessary.