Oscar Nomination Predictions 2012

My annual New Year’s resolution is to spend more time than the year prior doing the most pointless things imaginable.  So, this year I felt I should start off with a bang and spend even more time than usual researching my Oscar predictions.  And I’m glad I did because this year has been by FAR the most difficult to predict since I started getting into the Oscars. I can’t ever remember a time when there were 4 legitimate threats to win Best Picture by the time January rolled around (Lincoln, Les Mis, Argo, Zero Dark Thirty).  But that’s another prediction for another day.

Right now, my focus is on Thursday’s butt-crack-of-dawn Oscar Nominations announcement, or as I like to call it, Christmas morning. Instead of throwing up my predictions and calling it a day, I’m giving you the “inside Adam’s head” version for the way I see things lining up right now for the major 8 categories. We’ll see how well I do come Thursday AM. 

Best Picture:

Locks:

Lincoln
Les Miserables
Argo
Zero Dark Thirty
Silver Linings Playbook
Life of Pi

 

The Wild Card:

Django Unchained

Vying for 0-3 Spots:

Beasts of the Southern Wild
Moonrise Kingdom
Skyfall
Amour
The Master

Final Prediction: A reminder that there are anywhere between 6-10 best Picture nominees.  My money is on 8 this year: Lincoln, Les Miserables, Argo, Zero Dark Thirty, Silver Linings Playbook, Life of Pi, Django Unchained, and screw it…Skyfall.

If there are 9 or 10, add Beasts of the Southern Wild and Moonrise Kingdom to the list, in that order.

Best Director:

Locks:

Ben Affleck, Argo
Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln

Pretty Safe:

Ang Lee, Life of Pi

I Think He’s In:

David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook

The Major Wild Card:

Michael Haneke, Amour

Wouldn’t Totally Shock Me:

Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained
Wes Anderson, Moonrise Kingdom
Tom Hooper, Les Miserables
Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master

Final Prediction: Affleck, Spielberg, Bigelow, Lee, David O. Russell.

Not going out on any limbs by saying
Lincoln will score huge with the Academy

Best Actor:

Locks:

Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables

Safe-ish?

Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
Denzel Washington, Flight

Vying for 1 Spot:

John Hawkes, The Sessions
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master

Final Prediction: I’m going with the SAG five: Day-Lewis, Jackman, Cooper, Washington, Hawkes. Sorry, Joaquin.

Best Actress:

Locks:

Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook

Not Safe in Any Way, Shape or Form:

Naomi Watts, The Impossible
Marion Cotillard, Rust & Bone

Inspiring a Lot of Passion:

Quvenzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Emanuelle Riva, Amour

Don’t Be Shocked if this Happens:

Helen Mirren, Hitchcock

 

Final Prediction: Chastain, Lawrence, Watts, Cotillard, Wallis.

Best Supporting Actor:

Locks:

Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln

Sadly, Not Quite a Lock:

Phillip Seymour Hoffman, The Master

 

The Rest of the Mis-mash

Robert DeNiro, Silver Linings Playbook
Alan Arkin, Argo
Javier Bardem, Skyfall
Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained
Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained

Final Prediction: TLJ, PSH, DeNiro, Arkin, Bardem

 

No guts, no glory: I'm predicting Kidman will get in
for her strange performance in The Paperboy.

Best Supporting Actress:

Locks:

Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Sally Field, Lincoln

Safe:

Helen Hunt, The Sessions

Whatever:

Amy Adams, The Master

Nicole Kidman, The Paperboy
Maggie Smith, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Ann Dowd, Compliance

Final Prediction: Hathaway, Field, Hunt, Adams, Kidman

Best Adapted Screenplay:

Locks:

Argo
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook

The Rest of the Field:

Beasts of the Southern Wild
The Perks of Being a Wallflower
Life of Pi
Les Miserables

Final Prediction: Argo, Lincoln, Silver Linings Playbook, Beasts of the Southern Wild, Life of Pi

Best Original Screenplay:

Locks:

Zero Dark Thirty
Django Unchained

Pretty Safe:

Moonrise Kingdom

Really Feelin’ This One:

Looper

The Rest of the Field:

The Master
Amour
Flight

 

Final Prediction: Zero Dark Thirty, Django Unchained, Moonrise Kingdom, Looper, The Master