Last
year, I went to an Oscar watch-party in which the gracious hostess provided a
couple of prizes for those who filled out a chart and predicted the highest
number of actual winners. Obviously, I
thought that I had it in the bag. Well,
a few categories in and I was already down by a couple of wins. With each passing category, I got more and
more nervous, seeing my status as movie geek supreme firmly on the line. I had to gulp a few extra sips of Cabernet to
face the music of each winner being announced.
I
lost. By one.
Now,
two lessons here: One, Oscar prognosticating is a monumental waste of
time. Two, because the voting body is so
large, you have to use a little common sense in these matters. For instance, one of the categories I lost in
last year was best cinematography. I had
predicted True Grit would win, based
on the cinematographer Roger Deakins never having won the award, despite an
impressive body of work. The Oscar
instead went to Wally Pfister for his work in Inception. The common sense
side of me would have not known about Deakins’ lack of a win, and focused
solely on Inception’s wave of success and just how cool the movie
looked.
So,
I’m taking a common sense approach this year.
Yes, a little background helps, but not overthinking it might prove to
be a better strategy than in years past.
Feel free to come back and check to see how I’m doing come Oscar
night. As for me, hopefully I won’t have
to pour those two extra glasses to get me through the night
this time.
Best Picture: The
Artist
% Sure: 110
Could Win: Hugo
Should Win: Hugo
Should Have Been
There: Of films that had even a fighting chance, I’d say A Separation. Of my own personal faves, I’d say Young Adult.
Comments: The Artist will win. I liked it.
Hollywood liked it. Your mom and
your mom’s best friend liked it. Your
dog liked it. It’s the least offensive
film. Everyone wins. The end.
Best Director: Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
% Sure: 95
Could Win: Martin
Scorsese, Hugo
Should Win: Terrence
Malick, The Tree of Life
Should Have Been
There: Lynne Ramsey, We Need to Talk
About Kevin
Comments: No real
potential threat to the frontrunner (Hazanavicius) this year, unlike last year
when there was a late push for David Fincher, even though we all knew his film
wouldn’t win the big prize. I could see
Scorsese pulling it off, and I wouldn’t even be totally, compleeeeeeetely
shocked if somehow Terrence Malick won.
But he won’t. Smart money’s on
the frontrunner here.
Best Actor in a
Leading Role: Jean Dujardin, The Artist
% Sure: 87.5
Could Win: George
Clooney
Should Win: Brad Pitt
Should Have Been
There: Michael. Freaking. Shannon.
Comments: Crazy
that an unknown French actor is a frontrunner against the likes of Clooney and
Pitt, who both turned in what conventional wisdom has deemed “career
performances” (I only agree in the case of the latter), and at this point are
pretty much scepter-wielding and crown-wearing members of Hollywood
Royalty. Dujardin will win, which I’m
fine with, but if there are going to be any eye-popping shockers in the major
categories this year, I do predict that it will be in this one, whether its
Pitt or Clooney.
Best Actress in a
Leading Role: Viola Davis, The Help
% Sure: 75
Could Win: Meryl
Streep
Should Win: Viola
Davis, although I haven’t seen Michelle Williams or Glenn Close.
Should Have Been
There: Charlize Theron
Comments: Davis
has the important SAG win, and a bunch of others. Meryl mainly has the BAFTA and the Golden
Globe. Are these irrelevant wins? No, but both of those awards bodies are made
up of non-Americans, who wouldn’t have as much of a connection with the civil
rights movement, and in the case of the BAFTA’s, it’s obvious why they would
gravitate toward the portrayal of a former Prime Minister. I think this is a race, but it’s not a close
race.
Best Actor in a
Supporting Role: Christopher
Plummer, Beginners
% Sure: 100
Could Win: Max
Von Sydow
Should Win:
Christopher Plummer
Should Have Been
There: Patton Oswalt
Comments: No one
really gave Christopher Plummer a race this year. It’s been his since day 1.
Best Actress in a
Supporting Role: Octavia
Spencer, The Help
% Sure: 100
Could Win: Katie
Holmes for Jack and Jill. Because she has as much of a chance as any of
the other four nominees.
Should Win: Any
of the other nominees.
Should Have Been
There: Jennifer Ehle, Contagion
Comments: This
will be one of the least-deserved acting wins of the last five years, behind
‘ole Sandy Bullock, of course.
Best Adapted
Screenplay: The Descendants
% Sure: 50
Could Win: Hugo or Moneyball
Should Win: Moneyball
Should Have Been
There: Jane Eyre
Comments: I saved this one for last when writing this
column. Very difficult to figure out
what’s going on here. Payne films are
known for their writing, and The
Descendants is his most successful film to date. Hugo,
though, has 11 nominations, and could win based on general like for the
film. Then there’s Moneyball, which relies heavily on a strong script for its
success. Any of the three could win. I think they award Payne and go with The Descendants.
 |
| Woody Allen's feeling the love this year for Midnight in Paris |
Best Original
Screenplay: Midnight in Paris (Woody Allen!)
% Sure: 70
Could Win: The Artist
Should Win: A Separation
Should Have Been
There: Young Adult
Comments: Look for The
Artist to ride its wave of goodwill to an upset in this category. I’m sticking with Allen’s pseudo-fantasy
comedy as my prediction, though, as Paris
is regarded as the best thing he’s done in awhile (only since Vicky Christina Barcelona, though, in my
opinion), and I think people will want to reward the film legend in his
twilight years.
Best Art
Direction: Hugo
% Sure: 90
Could Win: The Artist
Should Win: Hugo
Should Have Been
There: Contagion
Comments: This
will be a well-deserved award for Hugo. My thoughts on Hugo have been made known here, but among the many reasons that I
fell in love with it was the production design, which I thought was impeccable
and added so much to the experience of the movie.
Best
Cinematography: The Tree of Life
% Sure: 75
Could Win: The Artist
Should Win: It
wouldn’t even be enough to give The Tree
of Life two Oscars for its cinematography, so that.
Should Have Been
There: Anonymous
Comments: This is
my line in the sand with the Academy.
This sounds like a childish thing to say, but there’s just no way a
rational person can look at The Tree of
Life and possibly want to award anything else, unless there’s some personal
vendetta against the film. If Tree of Life loses, then I just can’t
even.
Best Film Editing:
Hugo
% Sure: 89
Could Win: The Artist
Should Win: The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo
Should Have Been
There: Martha Marcy May Marlene (definitely
the best film editing of 2011 for my money).
Comments: This category is difficult to handicap. I feel really good about Hugo, but I’m not sure if I can really articulate why. The
Artist, once again, could easily take this.
But here are the Best Film Editing winners wince 2000: The
Social Network, The Hurt Locker,
Slumdog Millionaire, The Bourne Ultimatum, Crash, The Aviator, Return of the
King, Chicago, Black Hawk Down, Traffic.
I don’t know why, but something doesn’t compute between these films and The Artist. It doesn’t have the scope of any of these,
save The Social Network, which was a
masterclass in film editing. I’m going
with Hugo.
Best Sound Mixing: Hugo
% Sure: 68
Could Win: War Horse
Should Win: Moneyball
Should Have Been
There: I’m just glad Moneyball made it in. Well-deserved nomination.
Comments: The
sound categories always give me issues. Hugo doesn’t seem like the type of film
to take both Sound Mixing and Editing, but I do think it wins this one, because
for whatever reason Sound Mixing tends to go to the more “prestigious” films,
whereas Sound Editing goes to more of the action-oriented films.
 |
| One of the most heavily anticipated films of the year, War Horse will end up with one award. |
Best Sound Editing: War Horse
% Sure: 63
Could Win: Hugo
Should Win: Drive
Should Have Been
There: All good nominees.
Comments: See Above.
Best Visual
Effects: Rise of the Planet of
the Apes
% Sure: 50
Could Win: Hugo
Should Win: Hugo
Should Have Been
There: The Tree of Life
Comments: Here’s the nerdy statistic I have about this
category: no Best Picture nominee has lost this award to a non-Best Picture
nominee since the 1970’s, and before that it was the 1940’s. That bodes well for Hugo. But, in going along
with my common sense approach, I’m predicting Apes here. When you consider
the work involved in creating a motion-capture ape that is essentially the main
character in the film, that is something that really sticks out in voters’
minds, I think, even more than the flawless visual effects in Hugo.
Best Costume
Design: W.E.
% Sure: 40
Could Win: Hugo?
Should Win: Jane Eyre
Should Have Been
There: I always wish they would
nominate contemporary movies here, so I’ll go with Martha Marcy May Marlene.
Comments: Hardest
category by far this year. I have no
idea, but here’s what I do know: I’m going with the common sense approach. W.E. is
a terrible movie which keeps winning a bunch of costume awards. I’m not overthinking this. I’m not overthinking this. W.E. wins.
Best Makeup: The
Meryl Streep Hamming It Up Movie
% Sure: 90
Could Win:
Whatever.
Should Win:
Whatever.
Should Have Been
There: Contagion
Comments:
Whatever.
Best Original
Score: The Artist
% Sure: 80
Could Win: Hugo
Should Win: The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo
Should Have Been
There: Contagion
Comments: I
should feel more confident in this category than I am. Hugo’s
score is very good and would not be surprised if it pulled an upset. The wildcard contender is Trent Reznor’s
second go-around with David Fincher in this year’s Dragon Tattoo. Since Reznor
won last year, though, I feel like it might be too soon for voters to throw
another bone his way.
Best Original
Song: Man or Muppet, The Muppets
% Sure: 85
Could Win: Um, the
only other nominee, Rio.
Should Win: “As I reflect on my reflection...”
Should Have Been
There: Every other song from The
Muppets
Comments: This is
the weirdest category this year. No
explanation as to why there are only two nominees here. The
Muppets could have easily filled the category with two or three other
songs. Anyway, looking at it from a total achievement standpoint, I think most
voters will go with The Muppets.
Best Animated
Feature Film: Rango
% Sure: 99
Could Win: Chico & Rita
Should Win: The Lion King 3D. Okay, it’s not eligible, but it’s the only
animated film I saw this year.
Comments: Pixar
finally will not win a statue. I haven’t
seen any of these. Next.
Best Documentary
Feature Film:
% Sure: Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory
Could Win: Pina
Should Win: Not Pina (terrible), other than that I don’t
care.
Should Have Been
There: Cave of Forgotten Dreams
Comments: Only one I’ve seen here is Pina, which is another discussion for
another time (it was the worst 2011 film I saw, bar none). The general consensus is that Paradise Lost is the one to beat here,
so I suppose I will go along with that and pass it off as my own opinion,
without giving any insight whatsoever.
Best Foreign
Language Film: A Separation
% Sure: 90
Could Win: Monsieur
Lazhar
Should Win/Only Film
I’ve Seen in the Category: A
Separation
Comments: This
category gets weird sometimes and clearly superior films often lose out to
inferior films (take two years ago when Palme D’Or winner The White Ribbon and critical powerhouse A Prophet lost out to vanilla crime saga The Secret in their Eyes). A Separation should easily take this,
and I predict it will since it was nominated for its screenplay (that NEVER
happens with foreign films), but I wouldn’t put it past the Academy to do
something weird here.
I’m even including my predictions for the short categories
this year. Go me.
Best Short Film,
Live Action: The Shore
Best Short Film,
Animated: The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore
Best Documentary,
Short Subjects: Saving Face
No comments:
Post a Comment