Thursday, January 19, 2012

Facts, Predictions, and Reckless Predictions for Oscar Nomination Morning

Fact: The Best Picture lineup doesn’t hold a candle to last year’s incredible selections.  In fact, the Oscar race in general this year strikes me as very bland compared to last year’s. 

Prediction: Last year, a whopping five of the BP nominees ended up on my Top-10 of the year list.  This year, at most, there will be two that Oscar and I agree on. 

Reckless Prediction: I still haven’t seen my #1 movie of the year yet.

Fact: No one really knows how many Best Picture nominees there will be this year.  Most are predicting 7-8 nominees, but is that based off of data, or is it just an average?  I’m personally sticking with 7 nominees for now, but no number of nominees would truly shock me.  No one knows.

Prediction: My predictions in the Big-8 categories this year won’t be as accurate as they were last year (in which I correctly predicted 39/45 possible nominations).  It’s a weird year.

Reckless Prediction: Since it’s a weird year, I think it’s highly possible that a film that hardly anyone is predicting will be nominated for Best Picture, and that it will be one of these: The Tree of Life, Drive, Bridesmaids, The Ides of March.

Fact: The Help’s only saving grace as a probable Best Picture nominee: at least it wasn’t as bad as The Blind Side.

Prediction: War Horse misses out on a Best Picture nomination.  The Spielberg name can only take it so far.

Reckless Prediction: Spielberg makes an epic comeback next year with Lincoln (at least, let’s hope). 

Fact: Back in September when I made my early Best Picture predictions, one of my “reckless predictions” was The Artist winning Best Picture, and now it looks like that has a very good chance of happening.  I should really quit my day job and do this for a living. 

Prediction: My student loan debt will keep me from quitting my day job.

Not-So-Reckless Prediction: Student loans suck.

Fact: The Lead actor and actress categories are the easiest to predict this year.  For the actors, Clooney, Pitt, Fassbender, and Dujardin are all locks.  I predict that the fifth spot will go to yet-to-be-Oscar-nominated veteran Gary Oldman, although DiCaprio and Michael Shannon are also possibilities.  In the actress category, Davis, Streep, Williams, and Swinton are locks.   Glenn Close has suffered a couple of setbacks by failing to be nominated by BAFTA and a couple of others, but I feel that she’s pretty safe here.  Other contenders for the fifth slot here are Charlize Theron and Rooney Mara.  (Side Fact: I’m very disappointed in the lack of attention Charlize Theron is getting for career-best work in Young Adult.  Sad.)

Fact: The supporting categories are far more difficult to predict.  If I end up getting 4/5 correct in either category, I will be happy.

Prediction: Melissa McCarthy’s probable nomination for her sink-diarrhea-laden turn in Bridesmaids will go down as one of the worst, ever.

"It's coming out of me like lava!"
Reckless Prediction: The aforementioned sink-diarrhea scene will be McCarthy’s clip when they announce the nominees at the show, and I will laugh.

Fact: Last year I made a nice little chunk of change on a Tom Hooper bet for Best Director. 

Prediction: There is money to be made on bets this year for The Artist, Michel Hazanavicius, George Clooney, Christopher Plummer, and Octavia Spencer, and I plan on taking full advantage of this.

Reckless Prediction: My wife will (a) divorce me, or (b) get a temporary injunction with respect to our marital property upon reading the previous two sentences.

All that said, here are my Final Oscar Nomination Predictions for 2012, which will be announced Tuesday January 24th in the AM.  Feel free to check back and see how poorly I did after the announcement. 

Expect The Artist to score big with the Academy
this year.
Best Picture:
The Artist
The Descendants
Midnight in Paris
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
The Help

Best Director:
Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Alexander Payne, The Descendants
Martin Scorcese, Hugo
Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
David Fincher, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo

Best Actor:
George Clooney, The Descendants
Jean Dujardin, The Artist
Brad Pitt, Moneyball
Michael Fassbender, Shame
Gary Oldman, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

Best Actress:
Viola Davis, The Help
Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn
I'm okay with the love for The Help in
for a couple of reasons.
Tilda Swinton, We Need to Talk About Kevin
Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs

Best Supporting Actor:
Jonah Hill, Moneyball
Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Albert Brooks, Drive
Kenneth Branagh, My Week With Marilyn
Nick Nolte, Warrior

Best Supporting Actress:
Berenice Bejo, The Artist
Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids
Octavia Spencer, The Help
Jessica Chastain, The Help
Shailene Woodley, The Descendants

Best Adapted Screenplay:
The Descendants
The Help
Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy

Best Original Screenplay:
Midnight in Paris
The Artist